3.
Provide your organization’s feedback on the Planned Outage Process Enhancements topic as described in section 5.1.1:
The California Independent System Operator (CAISO) proposes to modify the planned outage process by requiring full substitution for any planned outage by a resource adequacy (RA) resource.[1] Procuring substitute capacity would be the obligation of the resource scheduling coordinator (SC) instead of the load-serving entity (LSE) which showed the resource.[2] The CAISO’s proposed planned outage substitution obligation (POSO) would apply to all summer and non-summer months beginning in summer 2021, and would sunset when a Phase 2 solution is adopted in the CAISO’s RA Enhancements Initiative (expected in late 2021, to be implemented in RA year 2023).[3] In other words, the CAISO’s current proposal would apply for at least 18 months, or indefinitely if a longer-term proposal cannot be agreed upon.
- Stakeholders are largely opposed to the POSO
As the CAISO acknowledges,[4] stakeholder comments submitted on January 21, 2021, on the Draft Final Proposal were overwhelmingly opposed to the POSO component of the proposal.[5] The current and final iteration of the proposal makes one major change in extending the POSO from applying to Summer 2021 only, to starting in Summer 2021 and continuing through all months to the unspecified date when Phase 2B can be completed.[6] Cal Advocates opposed the design of the POSO in the Draft Final Proposal stage with the caveat that if the CAISO were to revise the POSO, “Cal Advocates prefers a pilot program for only summer 2021, with an opportunity for ex-post evaluation.”[7] Notably, California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) Energy Division staff expressed support for the CAISO’s proposal “to require substitute capacity for any RA resource that seeks to take a planned outage during the summer months” [emphasis added].[8] Cal Advocates maintains its prior position, and strongly reiterates that, if revised, the POSO should only apply to summer months.
- The POSO will increase ratepayer costs, eliminate outage flexibility, and is too open-ended
Cal Advocates appreciates the CAISO’s commitment to identifying feasible solutions which can be implemented on a very short timeline to improve system reliability in Summer 2021. That said, Cal Advocates has several concerns about the design of the POSO in the FPP1 and, if the POSO is implemented, Cal Advocates continues to support the POSO as a pilot for Summer 2021 only.
- Extending the POSO to cover all months will increase long-term ratepayer costs
A year-round POSO would increase ratepayer costs as generators incorporate the costs of substitution into new RA contracts. Eliminating the option for planned outages without replacement would inevitably increase ratepayer costs as scheduling coordinators pass the costs of substituting all planned outages on to LSEs. LSEs that act as SCs would incur ratepayer costs through substitution procurement unless the LSE happens to control spare non-RA capacity.[9] Non-LSE SCs could potentially recover the costs of this proposal by raising RA prices in the near future.
Applying the POSO year-round would also send a strong market signal about increasing costs just as large volumes of incremental RA capacity are being procured. There is substantial RA capacity likely to come online before RA Year 2023 during which the POSO would apply, including RA procurement authorized in CPUC Rulemaking 20-11-003 for 2021 and anticipated for 2022, as well as ongoing procurement authorized by CPUC Decision 19-11-016. This new RA capacity would therefore be subject to the proposed year-round POSO for the life of their contracts (unless renegotiated), including both short-term and long-term contracts. A nominally temporary proposal such as this would have additional long-lasting ratepayer impacts because many RA contract terms extend for 10 to 20 years and would have planned outage substitution costs baked into their prices. Limiting the POSO to summer months would provide yearly windows when generators could take planned outages without incurring additional costs which would inevitably be passed on to ratepayers in the form of higher RA prices.
- Extending the POSO effectively eliminates the purpose of a planned outage
Planned outages are not a major source of reliability risk because they are entirely within the CAISO’s purview to approve or deny. CAISO Operating Procedures describe two types of RA Maintenance Outages and their approval criteria.[10] The POSO would eliminate the second outage type, RA Maintenance Outage Without Replacement, which allows planned outages when the “outage will not result in insufficient RA capacity during outage period.”[11] In contrast, the POSO would require generators to provide substitute capacity even when the CAISO’s reliability studies forecast no risk of insufficient RA supply.
Planned outages are a negotiated solution between LSEs and the system operator to allow generators to carry out necessary maintenance when it is convenient for all participants. If the CAISO’s reliability studies forecast that a planned outage could threaten the reliability of the grid, the CAISO already has the right to deny that outage. However, in the FPP1 and CAISO staff comments during stakeholder workshops, the CAISO has framed the necessity of a year-round obligation using terms such as “principles” and “commitments.” For example, the CAISO states that it, “does not believe that the presence of non-RA capacity or the lack of substitute capacity should relieve an RA resource of its obligation to be available to the CAISO.”[12]
From a structural perspective, the CAISO’s proposal attempts to eliminate all risk associated with the type of outage over which it has the most control. For example, the CAISO notes that, “Ultimately, providing RA is a commitment to be available to the CAISO. If a resource is unable to do so, it should have an obligation to find another resource that will, or not be shown as RA in that month.”[13] Describing RA resources which are on planned outages of being unavailable to the CAISO is unreasonable because those outages would have already received prior approval by the CAISO. Planned outages are needed to allow generators to carry out necessary maintenance which in turn supports reliability and reduces future unexpected outages. Imposing a year-round POSO will add additional costs without any clear reliability improvement.
Grid managers must always seek to balance the tension between costs and reliability, but the CAISO’s POSO proposal prioritizes reliability with inadequate heed to the cost implications. The CAISO notes that, “the current planning reserve margin does not account for capacity unavailable due to planned outages.”[14] However, there is no need to account for a planned outage in the planning reserve margin because a planned outage is controllable.
Additionally, imposing a year-round POSO could have unintended side effects stemming from generator perceptions that having substitute capacity all-but-guarantees approval of a planned outage. During the FPP1 stakeholder call, a generator described this perspective and suggested that generators would end up delaying planned outage submissions until seven days ahead of operations instead of 45 days ahead.[15] While the CAISO staff insisted that several other factors inform the results of outage reliability studies and earlier submissions receive a higher likelihood of approval, the CAISO should be wary of misperceptions in the generator community. The CAISO should make clear that any planned outage that is canceled and not substituted for would be treated as a forced outage and subject to associated penalties.
- Extending the POSO indefinitely is not a temporary solution
Finally, Cal Advocates is concerned that the POSO proposal is temporary in name only. The CAISO clarifies that its “goal is to implement this policy promptly, to reduce reliability risks during the upcoming summer and all other months until phase 2 is implemented.”[16] Cal Advocates appreciates and shares the CAISO’s commitment to identify solutions which can be implemented to address short-term needs for summer 2021. However, the CAISO has not provided evidence that extending a year-round POSO is necessary to address reliability problems during non-peak months. Phase 2 of the RA Enhancements Initiative is set to be decided on by the CAISO board in either September or November of 2021. However, the CAISO’s RA Enhancements Initiative has been continually beset by delays, and there is little guarantee that the CAISO’s proposed timeline for a Phase 2 planned outage substitution successor policy will yield the necessary innovations.[17] An open-ended, year-round POSO is an unnecessary and expensive proposal.
- If the POSO is adopted, it should apply only to Summer 2021 as a single-season pilot program to inform a more permanent solution
Cal Advocates does not support revising the CAISO’s existing planned outage policy; however, if the CAISO decides to move forward with a POSO, Cal Advocates recommends that the POSO be limited to Summer 2021. A POSO limited to Summer 2021 would allow time to evaluate the POSO’s efficacy in Summer 2021 and inform future planned outage policy design, whether in Phase 2 of the CAISO’s RA Enhancements Initiative or a successor initiative. The CAISO cites major changes in forecast demand occurring in the seven days between when the POSO assessment window closed and grid operations took place in August and September 2020. Increased forecast uncertainty during summer months could be a reason a POSO could be valuable during the summer months. However, applying the POSO year-round would be superfluous and burdensome to ratepayers.
[1] Resource Adequacy Enhancements Final Proposal - Phase 1 (FPP1), February 17, 2021, p. 10.
[2] FPP1, p. 11.
[3] FPP1, p. 11.
[4] FPP1, p. 12.
[5] Stakeholder comments available at: https://stakeholdercenter.caiso.com/StakeholderInitiatives/AllComments/9c1e6759-bbeb-4930-ad6b-ec6894b2b2a4#question-2907d5b0-2e30-4790-be7a-c0266e303f4b
[6] FPP1, p. 16.
[7] See Cal Advocates’ comments, Question 4, available at: https://stakeholdercenter.caiso.com/StakeholderInitiatives/AllComments/9c1e6759-bbeb-4930-ad6b-ec6894b2b2a4#org-59e16160-3d44-4f81-938c-7a46f61eabd9
[8] See CPUC Energy Division staff comments, Question 4, available at: https://stakeholdercenter.caiso.com/StakeholderInitiatives/AllComments/9c1e6759-bbeb-4930-ad6b-ec6894b2b2a4#org-fd5371fa-d301-4bcb-9ca9-0f62da0e9713
[9] While the CAISO acknowledges that requiring SCs to provide substitution could incent withholding RA capacity by LSEs, the CAISO asserts that the benefits outweigh the costs. (See FPP1, p. 13.)
[10] CAISO Operating Procure No. 3220, Version 6.0, Effective Date 2/19/2021, p. 5, available at https://www.caiso.com/Documents/3220.pdf.
[11] CAISO Operating Procure No. 3220, Version 6.0, Effective Date 2/19/2021, p. 5, available at https://www.caiso.com/Documents/3220.pdf.
[12] FPP1, p. 12.
[13] FPP1, p. 12.
[14] FPP1, p. 12.
[15] Resource Adequacy Enhancements: Final Proposal - Phase 1, Call, February 23, 2021.
[16] FPP1, p. 16.
[17] FPP1, p. 9.