2.
Please provide your organization’s perspective on proposed solutions to address the issues above.
WPTF stresses the urgency of having a solution in place by the summer of 2024 and urges CAISO to consider options that strike a balance between effectiveness and ease of implementation. We propose three options for consideration, with potential trade-offs between them, and encourage thorough discussions among stakeholders to guide the solution pathway. Additionally, we provide a pathway forward for consideration in the event the stakeholders and CAISO believe the optimal solution requires more than 4 months to implement and an interim solution is initially implemented as discussions continue. Lastly, we suggest exploring whether different resource types (storage, hydro, and PDR) require distinct approaches. It could be that case that one option may be best suited for PDR while another for Storage and Hydro.
There are two aspects to any solution that WPTF believes should be incorporated. First, there needs to be consistency between bidding rules under the day-ahead and real-time markets. While we understand that most of the impact will be in the real-time market (especially for storage) we have to ensure that the day-ahead and real-time markets are aligned as much as possible. The market overall is more efficient when the day-ahead market can set resources up in a way to best address real-time conditions; if the two markets have drastically different bids due to discrepancies in bidding rules, this inherently will create discrepancies in market outcomes and ultimately reduce overall market efficiencies. To be clear, we are not saying that we need to revisit when the bid cap is increased in the day-ahead and real-time markets – that was established during the FERC Order 831 policy effort - but rather if resources are allowed to bid above $1,000/MWh under certain conditions in real-time then they should also be allowed to bid above $1,000/MWh in day-ahead if the same/similar conditions hold true. Second, we need to ensure that market power mitigation, both local and BAA-level, does not contradict the intent of allowing resources to bid in costs above $1,000/MWh. It is our understanding that the mitigated bids (i.e., DEBs) are capped at $1,000/MWh even if the opportunity cost in the storage and hydro DEBs are greater than $1,000/MWh. This means that absent aligning the DEB cap with the higher bid cap, mitigation will force resources to have offers in the market below marginal costs. Take for example a storage resource that per FERC Order 831 has marginal costs of $1,400/MWh. If that resource is subject to market power mitigation it will have its offer lowered to at least $1,000/MWh simply due to the current cap on the DEB even though we have recognized that their actual marginal costs are greater than $1,000/MWh. This would have the impact of completely unwinding the change this policy process is trying to accomplish. In other words, if we are thinking about where in the bid stack resources are, applying mitigation with a $1,000/MWh cap will essentially take storage and hydro resources from a place in the bid stack that represents their marginal costs and place them towards the bottom of the bid stack. We must ensure the market allows the resource to reflect the true cost (e.g., $1,400/MWh in this example) even when subject to market power mitigation because this reflects true marginal costs and allows the issue this effort is trying to address to remain addressed.
Additionally, WPTF strongly believes that this process should also consider ways in which PDR resources can bid above $1,000/MWh. While we understand the CPUC recently adopted a rule whereby PDR resources cannot bid above $949/MWh we still believe it’s imperative to address PDR now for a few reasons. First, the bid cap of $949/MWh does not apply to all PDR resources. The CPUC does not represent 100% of load in the CAISO market therefore there very well may be some PDR resources that are not under CPUC jurisdiction and thus do not have to bid at or below $949/MWh. Second, it also is our understanding that there may be some PDR resources in non-CAISO EIM and non-CAISO EDAM BAAs that are not subject to the CPUC bidding rule. Thus, it does not make sense to not address PDR given that only one LRA has opted to adopt a more restrictive bidding rule. Third, the CPUC’s decision adopting the $949/MWh bid cap does not apply to all CPUC jurisdictional PDR for 2024. Per the CPUC’s Decision, “[the bid cap] requirement will take effect for the 2024 RA compliance year and will apply to all PDRs procured for RA and in all months, with the exception of DRAM resources contracted for the 2024 RA delivery year (emphasis added).” The DRAM resources represent a significant portion of the over PDR fleet, thus even for summer of 2024 these resource types are not limited to $949/MWh, after which (per a recent CPUC propose decision), DRAM will be ending. Also, the bid cap is only applied to PDR resources providing RA, thus to the extent there are non-RA PDR resources in the market (which could also include EDAM/EIM PDR), they are not subject to the cap. Finally, and probably most importantly, the CPUC has left the door open to revisit the bid cap[1] and there could very well be the situation that if the CAISO market allows for PDR to bid above $1,000/MWh in certain conditions the CPUC will consider rules to align PDR bidding. If PDR resources are unable to bid above $1,000/MWh when the bid cap is increased to $2,000/MWh these resources will likely be dispatched well before the optimal time in which the resource should be utilized by the market, creating not only market inefficiencies but also customer fatigue of those programs such that they will hit their limitations prematurely and then not be available to the market when truly needed. We saw this occur in recent summer events, thus should take the opportunity to address it before it becomes an issue again.
Potential Solutions
WPTF provides a description of three potential solutions listed below followed by a discussion of a potential pathway forward in the event the CAISO and stakeholders believe a more complex solution is warranted but not obtainable by Summer 2024. To reiterate, we believe at a minimum, an interim solution is feasible and warranted by Summer 2024. Furthermore, this is not necessarily a one size fits all solution – it could be the case that one option lends itself more towards addressing PDR, for example, while another is better suited for storage and hydro. At this point, WPTF believes option #2 strikes the best balance while also recognizing PDR may be best addressed by either option #1 or #2.
- When the bid cap is raised to $2,000/MWh, allow resources to bid up to $2,000/MWh
- When the bid cap is raised to $2,000/MWh, allow resources to bid up to the higher of the highest Maximum Import Bid Price (MIBP) and highest cost verified offer received/calculated over the entire day
- When the bid cap is raised to $2,000/MWh, allow resources to bid up to the higher of the MIBP and cost verified offer received/calculated in that hour (i.e., apply same treatment as non-resource specific RA imports)
Storage, hydro, and PDR resources are energy limited resources and unable to be dispatched 24x7. From an economic perspective, the way to ensure such resources are optimally utilized across the day is to reflect intraday opportunity costs in the energy offers, which have been acknowledged by FERC as true short-run marginal costs that can be reflected in incremental energy offers. Thus, to the extent the opportunity cost is greater than $1,000/MWh these resources need to be able to reflect the higher cost in the market to help ensure optimal use. The following options are based on the premise that these resource types should be able to reflect intraday opportunity costs such that they are dispatched in the hours most valuable to the market and available when needed most.
Option #1: $2,000/MWh bid cap
One proposed approach is to permit resources to bid up to $2,000/MWh. While this would be straightforward to implement, CAISO has expressed apprehensions about potential repercussions. There's a concern that this allowance might result in storage, hydro, and PDR consistently bidding at the maximum rate of $2,000/MWh across all hours where the bid cap applies. On the other hand, this strategy could have beneficial implications for market dynamics, particularly in instances where bidding less than $2,000/MWh may result in energy-limited resources being dispatched to serve off-system sales and then unavailable in later hours to serve internal load requirements when needed most. Keep in mind that virtuals and exports can bid up to $2,000/MWh under FERC Order 831 conditions. Thus, if energy limited resources cannot bid up to the same cap, the market may find it optimal to dispatch an energy limited resource in a given hour to support an export (for example) that bid $2,000/MWh. This then could result in the energy limited resource not being available to serve load within the market footprint during tighter supply conditions later on in the day. WPTF believes this is a market dynamic that warrants discussion with stakeholders to evaluate the pros and cons of this market outcome.
Option #2: Highest MIBP or cost-verified bid across the day
This option considers allowing the resources to bid up to the highest of the hourly Maximum Import Bid Prices (MIBP) or cost verified offers that were calculated/received under FERC Order 831 conditions in that day. In practice, this would set the bid cap at the same level in all hours of the day (and applicable market) when FERC Order 831 conditions trigger allowing bids above $1,000/MWh and keep the bid cap at $1,000/MWh in the other hours. While this may not be the perfect calculation of an intraday opportunity cost, we believe it’s a reasonable approximation that should be considered especially given the ease of implementation. Allowing the resources to bid up to the highest MIBP of all hours or cost verified offers helps enable the market to ensure it’s not dispatched prematurely, which is especially a concern for the real-time market given its shorter optimization horizon. Take for example a resource that can discharge in one hour across the day and the bid cap is based on the MIBP in each hour (Option #3 discussed below) rather than the highest MIBP across the day (Option #2). Assume the bid cap is $1,200/MWh, $1,200/MWh, $1,400/MWh, and $1,300/MWh for HE 18 – HE 21 respectively and market prices align with the bid caps (e.g., highest in HE 20). The optimal use of that resource would be to dispatch in HE 20 however because the real-time does not see all hours when making decisions for HE18, the resource may be dispatched in HE18 becuase it could only bid up to $1,200/MWh in that hour and thus not available for HE20. Had the resource been able to bid up to $1,400/MWh in all hours (the highest MIBP of the day), the market would have been able to use the resource when needed most. Option #2 preserves the ability for the market to dispatch the resource when needed most and allows storage resources to better manage their ability to meet day-ahead schedules in real-time.
The cost verification would be the CAISO’s MIBPs and cost verified offers greater than $1,000/MWh. Given that these are CAISO calculated and approved values, WPTF is unclear at this point what documentation if any should be provided to CAISO in the event an offer is submitted above $1,000/MWh especially if this is just an interim solution. Additionally, if the CAISO is applying rules to lower offers down to the cap, it’s unclear to CAISO what additional information is needed to support the offer. Thus, it would be helpful for the CAISO to confirm what bid cap information is disseminated to market participants today through CMRI and SIBR and the timing of when that information is available.
From an implementation perspective, this option seems relatively straightforward and should not require significant implementation effort. The CAISO calculates the MIBPs for both the day-ahead and real-time markets well before bids are due, so this information is readily available for use in the market. Additionally, any cost-verified bids will be known to CAISO by the time bids are used in the market run. Thus, when the bid cap is raised to $2,000/MWh, the resources can submit bids up to $2,000/MWh. Then the CAISO can simply lower any offers from these resources down to the cap through SIBR. This addresses the concern that participants may not have all of the necessary information in sufficient time to submit bids within the bid cap limits and is an automated process using CAISO calculated values.
Option #3: Non-resource specific RA import treatment
This option would simply treat resources like non-resource specific RA imports which are allowed to bid up to the higher of the MIBP or cost-verified bid for that hour. The cost justification/verification would be the CAISO calculated MIBP and cost-verified bids to approximate the intra-day opportunity cost of these resources. The main difference between this option and Option #2 is that because this option sets the cap in each hour based on the MIBP and cost verified offers in that hour, it may still result in storage, hydro, and PDR resources being dispatched earlier on and unable to meet day-ahead schedules (absent charging at expectedly higher prices for storage) as discussed in Option #2. Furthermore, this may still result in storage resources being unable to meet their day-ahead schedule. Using the same example set up as in Option #2 above, if the resource is only able to bid up to $1,200/MWh in HE 18-19 and has a day-ahead schedule in HE 20, it may very well be dispatched in either HE18 or 19 and then unable to meet its day-ahead schedule in HE 20 because it was restricted to bid at $1,200/MWh instead of $1,400/MWh.
From an implementation perspective, option #3 is also straightforward like option #1 and #2 and should not require significant implementation effort. The CAISO already has the functionality in place since it is applying the same logic and bidding rules to non-resource specific RA imports.
Pathway Forward
To the extent the CAISO and stakeholders believe options #1 - #3 are best suited as interim solutions, WPTF believes there is pathway forward to work towards a more sophisticated solution that leverages much of the same functionality as the existing automated reference level adjustment process. To be clear, WPTF is not presupposing the options #1-#3 above are solely interim solutions; one very well may be the ideal solution after more discussions with stakeholders and CAISO that take into account the trade-offs of all options.
WPTF believes the CAISO and stakeholders could consider, under FERC Order 831 conditions, folding the MIBPs into the opportunity cost component of the DEB and not capping the DEB at $1,000/MWh. A simplified example would be if the MIBP in the IFM was $1,500/MWh for HE18-HE21, the resource would then submit a reference level adjustment request setting the reference level to $1,500/MWh based on the 4th highest MIBP. Although some discussion is warranted around how to set the opportunity cost component in the event there are hours with MIBP, or cost verified offers greater than $1,000/MWh but less than 4 hours. The supporting documents for cost verification could just be a screen shot of the MIBPs for that trading day. Alternatively, the CAISO itself could recalculate the DEBs using the MIBPs for that trade date and if the resource submits an offer above the recalculated DEB, the CAISO will lower the offer down to the DEB. Additional implementation details will need to be vetted with stakeholders and the CAISO, but WPTF believes that there is a feasible pathway to leveraging the MIBPs in recalculating the DEBs (or recognizing MIBPs as the opportunity cost value in submitting reference level adjustments to the extent market participants have the entire set of calculated hourly MIBPs well in advance of when requests are due) to allow for offers from these resources to reflect marginal costs above $1,000/MWh.
[1]“We do, however, intend to revisit this requirement as needed and as more information is gathered on PDR bidding behavior and dispatch.” Pg 86 of Track 3 Decision
3.
Is there additional information that would be helpful for your organization to understand the topic/issues better?
4.
Please provide any additional feedback.