2.
Is there any issue/challenge related to Scarcity Pricing that has not been discussed and warrants further Working Group conversation?
WPTF highly encourages the CAISO to incorporate a comprehensive discussion on the benefits of scarcity pricing within the wholesale competitive market, considering perspectives from both the load and supply sides. It's crucial to emphasize that scarcity pricing extends beyond merely raising prices, as reiterated by the CAISO. Rather, it serves as a mechanism to convey accurate signals that align with prevailing market conditions. This precision in price formation during scarcity situations is mutually beneficial for both load and supply participants.
Overall, scarcity pricing in the wholesale energy market benefits both supply and load by creating more efficient incentives, enhancing reliability, and promoting cost-effective asset utilization. It fosters an environment where investment in maintenance of existing supply infrastructure is incentivized, ensuring reliable operation when demand peaks. Moreover, scarcity pricing increases the consequences for supply not showing up when needed, thereby improving overall system reliability. It also encourages more efficient use of generation assets by prioritizing least-cost resources in the day-ahead scheduling process, reducing the need for expensive incremental energy purchases in real-time and ultimately lowering costs for consumers in the long term. Additionally, scarcity pricing serves as a natural mechanism to mitigate market power, as resources are incentivized to offer at marginal cost during tight supply conditions, increasing the likelihood of being cleared and capturing higher prices. Lastly, scarcity pricing incentivizes load to better schedule and forward contract and to provide and maintain demand flexibility through the shortage period, leading to reduced costs for consumers over time.
In evaluating the efficacy of scarcity pricing, it's essential to contextualize its performance within the framework of FERC Order 831 that CAISO implemented. WPTF believes it's worth noting and discussing some nuanced aspects of the final FERC Order 831 policy CAISO adopted that may potentially hinder improvements in scarcity pricing. For example, fluctuations in the power balance constraint (PBC) penalty price between $1,000/MWh and $2,000/MWh, the establishment of shortage threshold values before the PBC penalty price is reflected in prices, and bidding regulations for storage and PDR resources. Therefore, it would be informative to include metrics assessing the performance of FERC Order 831, providing valuable insights into its impact on scarcity pricing dynamics, most notably during tight supply and shortage conditions.
3.
Please provide your organizations feedback on the following Problem Statements presented in the Sprint. This feedback can include comments on the issue/challenge identified, framing of the issue, potential solutions or necessary considerations in order to develop solutions.
a. CAISO’s market design limits the opportunity for the Scarcity Reserve Demand Curve (SRDC) to activate during tight system conditions.
b. CAISO's market design limits the opportunity for energy prices to gradually rise ahead of impending demand shortfall
c. The impact on market prices from reliability use-limited resources and non-market actions during emergency events is not holistically captured by price formation
d. Energy storage resource bids/DEBs are limited to a bid cap of $1000/MWh which may not reflect opportunity costs in tight system conditions when the bid cap is raised to $2000/MWh.
e. The ISO market does not have a circuit breaker mechanism in the event scarcity pricing occurs over an extended period of time.
a. CAISO’s market design limits the opportunity for the Scarcity Reserve Demand Curve (SRDC) to activate during tight system conditions.
WPTF acknowledges the issue articulated in this problem statement and concurs with its significance. Additionally, it recognizes that the current setup restricts the ability of the SCRD to consistently activate and influence energy prices across all markets - IFM, RTPD, and RTD - as deemed appropriate. This limitation persists because, as acknowledged by the CAISO, the SRDC's influence does not extend to the RTD market, thereby rendering it unable to impact 5-minute prices. Furthermore, even upon activation, the SRDC does not guarantee that scarcity pricing will be reflected in energy prices, leading to inconsistency and instability in scarcity signals across markets and products.
While WPTF appreciates the CAISO's willingness to explore modifications to the SRDC design aimed at enhancing scarcity pricing - such as re-optimizing AS and expanding its scope to encompass both the FMM and RTD markets – there are some threshold questions that first need to be addressed regarding feasibility and efficacy. First, we wonder whether the CAISO FMM and RTD markets can continue to publish results with these changes within the current market timeline, especially if a deliverability test is incorporated as discussed by the CAISO. Secondly, WPTF wonders if additional alterations to the SRDC are necessary to fully realize the anticipated benefits under AS re-optimization. For instance, are adjustments to penalty prices in the market for AS necessary to ensure the SRDC triggers appropriately, thus sending the requisite scarcity signals? And if so, do the adjustments still align with any applicable reliability requirements as defined by NERC/WECC standards?
WPTF would also like to take this opportunity to confirm with the CAISO that, per operators request, the market must include an AS deliverability test if AS is re-optimized in real-time. While from a theoretical standpoint, ensuring deliverability of AS products in real-time would be beneficial, we ask that the CAISO have a robust discussion with stakeholders about potential ways in which the benefit can be accomplished while minimizing adverse impacts to the market, such as price formation issues, added complexity, and market processing timelines.
Finally, WPTF asserts that achieving a robust scarcity pricing design in the CAISO market requires augmenting the current (and/or enhanced SRDC) framework with an additional element on the energy side. Since the SRDC's activation hinges on AS supply, and may not consistently impact energy prices during AS shortages, there's a need to broaden the discussion beyond the SRDC during shortage conditions. This suggests that the conversation should extend to include solutions that ensure consistent and effective reflection of scarcity signals across all products ideally in both Fifteen Minute Market and Five Minute Market, particularly in energy prices as supply conditions tighten. This may include consideration of an administrative adder or a power balance constraint penalty price structure that increases as shortage conditions increase. Making improvements to the SRDC as well as an additional mechanism on the energy side would facilitate a more comprehensive strategy for improving scarcity signals within the CAISO market ecosystem rather than solely enhancing the existing SRDC.
b.CAISO's market design limits the opportunity for energy prices to gradually rise ahead of impending demand shortfall
WPTF fully concurs with the issue delineated in this problem statement, recognizing its an imperative feature of a robust scarcity pricing design. Such a design is essential for facilitating a gradual escalation of prices as supply conditions tighten, and approaches shortage conditions. In response to this challenge, CAISO has proposed several options for discussion, including the implementation of a latent supply curve and the introduction of new reserve products aimed at bolstering energy prices amid tightening supply conditions. However, WPTF maintains a stance that CAISO should refrain from creating new products solely to enhance scarcity pricing signals; rather, the creation of new products should be justified by operational necessity. Consequently, WPTF's initial inclination is to further explore the concept of a latent supply curve, which would enable prices to incrementally rise above marginal costs. We envision such a construct would have prices that gradually rise as the amount of remaining supply on the system decreases. It's crucial to emphasize the gradual nature of this price increase to avoid sudden spikes, ensuring stability in pricing dynamics. Ideally, such adjustments would be integrated within the market framework itself rather than relying on post hoc price correction mechanisms.
c. The impact on market prices from reliability use-limited resources and non-market actions during emergency events is not holistically captured by price formation
Any robust scarcity pricing design should ensure that use of reliability resources and out of market actions taken to either prevent scarcity conditions from occurring or help correct market conditions during shortages should not counteract scarcity pricing signals. In other words, such actions should not suppress prices that otherwise would signal scarcity conditions.
d. Energy storage resource bids/DEBs are limited to a bid cap of $1000/MWh which may not reflect opportunity costs in tight system conditions when the bid cap is raised to $2000/MWh.
WPTF aligns with fellow stakeholders in emphasizing the critical importance of allowing storage and PDR resources to bid above $1,000/MWh under FERC Order 831 conditions, a matter deemed of high priority. Restricting these resources from bidding above $1,000/MWh, despite their justified opportunity cost, not only impedes the market's efficient utilization of these vital resources during critical periods but also fails to accurately reflect the marginal cost associated with relying on them under such circumstances. We anticipate that rectifying this issue can be feasibly accommodated within an expedited manner and therefore should be prioritized for implementation before the summer of 2024. While we acknowledge that the concept of opportunity cost for storage resources was not initially considered during the FERC Order 831 policy process due to their exemption from mitigation and lack of a reference level construct at that time, it has since been recognized and defined. Consequently, addressing this issue should be relatively straightforward.
e. The ISO market does not have a circuit breaker mechanism in the event scarcity pricing occurs over an extended period of time.
WPTF does not believe it is a problem that CAISO’s current market design does not include a circuit breaker mechanism or stop loss mechanism, given the relatively low prices used in the pricing run. Our understanding is that stop loss mechanisms that limit the amount of scarcity payments issued by the market are intended to limit significant collateral damage and are linked to the scarcity pricing levels. Unless the CAISO explores increasing the penalty prices used under scarcity to values closer aligned to the value of loss of load (i.e., higher than the standard $2,000/MWh under FERC Order 831) the lack of a circuit breaker is not an issue.
6.
Please provide any additional comments of feedback on the Price Formation Enhancements Working Group.